More election data.

As indicated by the popular vote totals, there is little support for the claim that a coalition government between the Liberal and NDP parties in Canada would be undemocratic. However, this represents a very rough analysis because the Canadian system, like many others, is a first-past-the-post process in which the candidate with the most votes is elected regardless of the margin.

In order to reveal the desire of the electorate more realistically, it is necessary to consider the total votes in each riding rather than at the national scale. I decided to see what would have happened in the latest election had the Liberal and NDP candidates run jointly in each riding from the outset by summing their respective votes on a riding by riding level. I compared only the major parties, meaning that I did not include any votes from the Green Party, independents, or fringe parties in the new totals. Data were acquired from Elections Canada and only verified final results were analyzed.

The actual election results were (number of seats):

  • Conservative: 143
  • Liberal: 77
  • Bloc Qubecois: 49
  • NDP: 37
  • Independent: 2

Now, taking each riding individually and adding the Liberal and NDP votes received, we note the following changes:

  • Conservatives would have lost 30 ridings to Liberal+NDP and retained 113.
  • Bloc Quebecois would have lost 9 ridings to Liberal+NDP and retained 40.

The new election results, if we count each riding by itself but combine the voters who chose either Liberal or NDP, are then:

  • Liberal+NDP: 153
  • Conservative: 113
  • Bloc Quebecois: 40
  • Independent: 2

We can’t assume that the election would have turned out exactly like this with combined parties (it would depend on the candidate, party leader, etc.). Nevertheless, this gives a reasonable estimate of what voters wanted in terms of representation. In other words, the election results, whether analyzed by popular vote nationally or riding by riding, clearly refute the claim that a coalition of the Liberal and NDP would contradict the expressed will of voters.

Parliamentary politics.

Ok, so Canada elected a conservative government again, meaning that the Conservative Party of Canada (a merger of the former right-centre Progressive Conservative Party and far-right Canadian Alliance) won more seats than the other parties. However, they did not win more than all other parties combined, which means that they have a minority government. In such a parliamentary system, the Prime Minister is the leader of the party who won the most seats, although his party may still be a minority in parliament.

There is now talk of a coalition government between the left-centre Liberal Party and the left New Democratic Party. Together, these two parties still would not have more seats than the Conservative Party, but with the support of the Quebec-only Bloc Québécois, they could be given the chance to govern.

There is some talk on the news and on forums that such a move would be undemocratic since the Conservative Party was elected and has a clear mandate from the people. What do Canadians want? Here are the data from the recent election (via Wikipedia).

Party Orientation Seats Votes Popular %
Conservative Party of Canada Right 143 5,208,796 37.65%
Liberal Party of Canada Left-centre 77 3,633,185 26.26%
Bloc Québécois Left-centre 49 1,379,991 9.98%
New Democratic Party Left 37 2,515,561 18.18%
Green Party Far left 0 937,613 6.78%





Conservative Right 143 5,208,796 37.65%
Liberal + NDP + Green Left 114 7,086,359 51.22%

This week’s paradigm shift: a single-celled organism can also leave tracks.


My displeasure with media stories continues today with another over-the-top, speculative, and tailor-made-for-quote-mining article from Discovery News. The gist of it is that some people saw a very large, single-celled organism leaving tracks in the sand. Therefore, we need to “revolutionize” the way we think about evolution because maybe this is the sort of creature that left trace fossils in the Cambrian.

The choice bits:

Single-Celled Giant Upends Early Evolution

Slowly rolling across the ocean floor, a humble single-celled creature is poised to revolutionize our understanding of how complex life evolved on Earth.

The finding could overturn conventional thinking on a mysterious time in the evolution of early life known as the Cambrian Explosion. Until about 550 million years ago, there were very few animals leaving trails behind. Then, within ten million years an unprecedented blossoming of life swarmed across the planet, filling every niche with hard-bodied, complex creatures.

“It wasn’t a gradual development of complexity,” Matz said. “Instead these things suddenly seemed to burst out of a magic box.”

Improving the science in science fiction.

There is an interesting story in New Scientist about The Science & Entertainment Exchange, a program initiated by the National Academy of Sciences to improve the science in movies and TV [New project aims to unite science and Hollywood]. It would be hard to make it worse, so this strikes me as a very positive development!

The project is described thus:

The Science & Entertainment Exchange is a program of the National Academy of Sciences that provides entertainment industry professionals with access to top scientists and engineers to help bring the reality of cutting-edge science to creative and engaging storylines.

The portrayal of science – its practitioners, its methods, its effects – has often posed a challenge to the entertainment community. Though it has inspired some of the most intelligent and compelling storylines, science’s many complexities have confounded even the most talented writer, director, or producer, time and again pitting creative license against scientific authenticity and clarity.

Likewise, the scientific community has struggled to find an effective conduit through which it can communicate its story accurately and effectively. Though many of the world’s biggest problems require scientific solutions, finding a way to translate and depict scientific findings so that reach a wide audience has required a sounding board that has often been missing.

The Science & Entertainment Exchange bridges this gap and addresses the mutual need of the two communities by providing the credibility and the verisimilitude upon which quality entertainment depends – and which audiences have come to expect. Drawing on the deep knowledge of the scientific community, we can collaborate on narrative and visual solutions to a variety of problems while contributing directly to the creativity of the content in fresh and unexpected ways.

Especially cool is this, from the report:

…the Exchange organised a symposium, sponsored in part by New Scientist, in which scientists and entertainers were to discuss hot topics in science like climate change and genomics.


Generic genome sequence press release (by Andy).

This comment by Andy was too good not to repost.

Generic press release for genome sequencing

Scientists map genome of (insert name).

A team of researchers from (insert university/institute/lockup garage) has completed mapping the genome of (animal/plant/squashy deep-sea thing).

“We were amazed how (strike one) similar/dissimilar it is to the human genome,” said (insert name of lead scientist/grad student/custodian who happened to answer the phone).

The discovery should help scientists (strike all but one) cure cancer/end world hunger/prevent hair loss).

Science by press release.

With apologies to Jonathan Eisen for encroaching on his annoyance specialty, here is yet another case of science via press release.

Big hop forward: Scientists map kangaroo’s DNA

Taking a big hop forward in marsupial research, scientists say they have unraveled the DNA of a small kangaroo named Matilda. And they’ve found the Aussie icon has more in common with humans than scientists had thought. The kangaroo last shared a common ancestor with humans 150 million years ago.

“We’ve been surprised at how similar the genomes are,” said Jenny Graves, director of the government-backed research effort. “Great chunks of the genome are virtually identical.”

The scientists also discovered 14 previously unknown genes in the kangaroo and suspect the same ones are also in humans, Graves said.

The animal whose DNA was decoded is a small kangaroo known as a Tammar wallaby and named Matilda. Researchers working with the government-funded Centre of Excellence for Kangaroo Genomics sequenced Matilda’s DNA last year. Last week, they finished putting the pieces of the sequence together to form a genetic map. The group plans to publish the research next year, Graves said.

Scientists have already untangled the DNA of around two dozen mammals, including mice and chimps, which are closer to humans on the evolutionary timeline. But Graves said it’s the kangaroo’s distance from people that make its genetic map helpful in understanding how humans evolved.

By lining up the genomes of different species, scientists can spot genes they never knew existed and figure out what DNA features have stayed the same or changed over time. Elements that have remained the same are usually important, Graves said.

The research is an important step in the understanding of genomes in general, said geneticist Bill Sherman, an associate professor of molecular ecology and conservation biology at the University of New South Wales.

But another genetic researcher was more skeptical of the project’s significance.

“If you are in Australia and you want to show that you are a major player in genomics, then it’s important,” said Penn State University biology and computer science professor Webb Miller. “But two guys in their garage are going to sequence another marsupial very soon.”

Those “two guys” are Miller and Penn State colleague Stephan Schuster, who are working on a shoestring budget to map the genome of the Tasmanian devil, which is in danger of extinction because of a contagious facial tumor disease. Miller and Schuster said their project could lead to a way to keep the species alive.

But check out the last line for the biggest problem in the story.

This isn’t the first time Australia’s unique wildlife has provided evolutionary clues. Earlier this year, scientists mapped the DNA of a platypus and found that it crosses different classifications of animals.

No. They. Did. Not.


Why do we blog and other important questions.

I am a member of the Nature Network, though my blog there, Pyrenaemata, has been dormant for some time. That’s largely because I have enough trouble posting (semi-)regularly on this blog and its counterpart at Scientific Blogging (Genomicron 2.0). In any case, there is a forum message at the Nature Network (though I saw it on Sandwalk) that asks a set of questions about blogging that I thought I would answer.

  1. What is your blog about?
    My blog is about science, in particular evolution and genomes. Much of the content of my blog has been about non-coding DNA, and the various myths and misconceptions that this topic entails. I veer into politics infrequently, and I also post some attempts at humour now and then. Unlike several of my favourite blogs (and no doubt to the detriment of my visit count), I do not talk about religion although I do discuss anti-evolutionism.
  2. What will you never write about?
    Never say never — but I made a conscious choice early on to focus on science.
  3. Have you ever considered leaving science?
    Not seriously.
  4. What would you do instead?
    I would probably write. About science.
  5. What do you think science blogging will be like in 5 years?
    I think more professional researchers will join the blogosphere as this becomes socially acceptable. The stigma that poking one’s head out of the ivory tower is not what real scientists do is quickly being replaced by an acceptance that the medium can be useful. I think (ok, hope) that blogs will become a more common source of science news than press releases. That said, I hope there is never any move toward making blogs a venue for actual science, as I believe the peer review system (flawed though it is) is essential.
  6. What is the most extraordinary thing that happened to you because of blogging?
    Nothing extraordinary per se, though more than one interview I have conducted involved the reporter indicating that he/she had found my blog.
  7. Did you write a blog post or comment you later regretted?
    Somewhat. Early on I had an argument with Nick Matzke in which I was a little more adamant than was called for. However, in the end it worked out and we stay in touch. I have also written some posts that I am proud of — the one on Remembrance Day, I have been told, was very moving.
  8. When did you first learn about science blogging?
    My graduate student introduced me to blogs about two years ago. It took a while for me to be convinced to read them (“I’m too busy for that” was probably my mindset), but then I began to see the value for finding information in fields outside my own. Plus, some of them are rather fun. Later, I decided I would try setting up a blog to talk about my research and related work. Voila.
  9. What do your colleagues at work say about your blogging?
    I list my blog in my “service” contributions as I consider this an exercise in public outreach, and that seems to go over ok.

Blogs and teaching.

There are many beneficial aspects to reading and writing blogs about science. I have found that they are often much better than news feeds (which generally are uncritical repetitions of press releases) for learning about research in areas other than my own specialization. This also makes them very useful for teaching, as new examples that otherwise might be overlooked can be found and added to the course material. Case in point, Not Exactly Rocket Science (a blog you should be reading, btw) has a post about a new paper in today’s Cell in which yeast behave in a cooperative way if they possess a certain “green beard” gene (Smukalla et al. 2008; see also Brown and Buckling 2008). I introduced green beard genes to my upper year evolution course back when I discussed altruism, but it so happens that this afternoon I will be covering major transitions, including the evolution of multicellularity. This paper provides a great way to tie the earlier discussion about altruism to the concept of very basic cooperative cell behaviour, cell adhesion, etc. Plus, I enjoy telling the class “Here is a paper that came out this morning…”.

A frustrating press release (or, adaptation is not random).

My feeling about science news reports is decidedly mixed. On the one hand, I read most of the main news services in order to keep up with research outside of my own discipline. On the other hand, I would say that about once every two or three days I find a story so silly that it makes me physically uncomfortable. This is one of those.

Evolution’s new wrinkle: proteins with ‘cruise control’ act like adaptive machines

It opens:

A team of Princeton University scientists has discovered that chains of proteins found in most living organisms act like adaptive machines, possessing the ability to control their own evolution.

The research, which appears to offer evidence of a hidden mechanism guiding the way biological organisms respond to the forces of natural selection, provides a new perspective on evolution, the scientists said.

Organisms do not “respond to natural selection”. Natural selection is the differential survival and reproduction of individuals within a population. It is a population level process and it is not interchangeable with “challenges to organism survival”. If all organisms in a population are able to respond to a challenge such that there is no differential survival and reproductive success, then there is no natural selection.

It continues:

The researchers — Raj Chakrabarti, Herschel Rabitz, Stacey Springs and George McLendon — made the discovery while carrying out experiments on proteins constituting the electron transport chain (ETC), a biochemical network essential for metabolism. A mathematical analysis of the experiments showed that the proteins themselves acted to correct any imbalance imposed on them through artificial mutations and restored the chain to working order.

“The discovery answers an age-old question that has puzzled biologists since the time of Darwin: How can organisms be so exquisitely complex, if evolution is completely random, operating like a ‘blind watchmaker’?” said Chakrabarti, an associate research scholar in the Department of Chemistry at Princeton. “Our new theory extends Darwin’s model, demonstrating how organisms can subtly direct aspects of their own evolution to create order out of randomness.”

Adaptive evolution is the result of natural selection — the differential survival and reproduction of randomly varying individuals on the basis of heritable characteristics. This differential survival and reproduction is, by definition, non-random. Again, organisms do not evolve, populations do.

And then it says:

The work also confirms an idea first floated in an 1858 essay by Alfred Wallace, who along with Charles Darwin co-discovered the theory of evolution. Wallace had suspected that certain systems undergoing natural selection can adjust their evolutionary course in a manner “exactly like that of the centrifugal governor of the steam engine, which checks and corrects any irregularities almost before they become evident.” In Wallace’s time, the steam engine operating with a centrifugal governor was one of the only examples of what is now referred to as feedback control. Examples abound, however, in modern technology, including cruise control in autos and thermostats in homes and offices.

The essay is the one presented by Lyell and Hooker to the Linnean Society in 1858, along with one by Darwin. Here is the full paragraph:

Wallace (1858):

The hypothesis of Lamarck—that progressive changes in species have been produced by the attempts of animals to increase the development of their own organs, and thus modify their structure and habits—has been repeatedly and easily refuted by all writers on the subject of varieties and species, and it seems to have been considered that when this was done the whole question has been finally settled; but the view here developed renders such an hypothesis quite unneccessary, by showing that similar results must be produced by the action of principles constantly at work in nature. The powerful retractile talons of the falcon- and the cat-tribes have not been produced or increased by the volition of those animals; but among different varieties which occurred in the earlier and less highly organized forms of these groups, those always survived longest which had the greatest facilities for seizing their prey. Neither did the giraffe acquire its long neck by desiring to reach the foliage of the more lofty shrubs, and constantly stretching its neck for the purpose, but because any varieties which occurred among its antitypes with a longer neck than usual at once secured a fresh range of pasture over the same ground as their shorter-necked companions, and on the first scarcity of food were thereby enabled to outlive them. Even the peculiar colours of many animals, especially insects, so closely resembling the soil or the leaves or the trunks o which they habitually reside, are explained on the same principle; for though in the course of ages varieties of many tints may have occurred, yet those races having colours best adapted to concealment from their enemies would inevitably survive the longest. We have also here an acting cause to account for that balance so often observed in nature,—a deficiency in one set of organs always being compensated by an increased development of some others—powerful wings accompanying weak feet, or great velocity making up for the absence of defensive weapons; for it has been shown that all varieties in which an unbalanced deficiency occurred could not long continue their existence. The action of this principle is exactly like that of the centrifugal governor of the steam engine, which checks and corrects any irregularities almost before they become evident; and in like manner no unbalanced deficiency in the animal kingdom can ever reach any conspicuous magnitude, because it would make itself felt at the very first step, by rendering existence difficult and extinction almost sure soon to follow. An origin such as is here advocated will also agree with the peculiar character of the modifications of form and structure which obtain in organized beings—the many lines of divergence from a central type, the increasing efficiency and power of a particular organ through a succession of allied species, and the remarkable persistence of unimportant parts such as colour, texture of plumage and hair, form of horns or crests, through a series of species differing considerably in more essential characters. It also furnishes us with a reason for that “more specialized structure” which Professor Owen states to be a characteristic of recent compared with extinct forms, and which would evidently be the result of the progressive modification of any organ applied to a special purpose in the animal economy.

Wallace was talking about the consequences of randomly determined variants that had a change in one feature without a compensatory change in some other feature, namely that they would not survive. There is nothing in this that implies that individual organisms are changing in response to challenges or that species are directing their evolution.

It goes on, but I will jump forward:

The research, published in a recent edition of Physical Review Letters, provides corroborating data, Rabitz said, for Wallace’s idea. “What we have found is that certain kinds of biological structures exist that are able to steer the process of evolution toward improved fitness,” said Rabitz, the Charles Phelps Smyth ’16 Professor of Chemistry. “The data just jumps off the page and implies we all have this wonderful piece of machinery inside that’s responding optimally to evolutionary pressure.”

The authors sought to identify the underlying cause for this self-correcting behavior in the observed protein chains. Standard evolutionary theory offered no clues. Applying the concepts of control theory, a body of knowledge that deals with the behavior of dynamical systems, the researchers concluded that this self-correcting behavior could only be possible if, during the early stages of evolution, the proteins had developed a self-regulating mechanism, analogous to a car’s cruise control or a home’s thermostat, allowing them to fine-tune and control their subsequent evolution. The scientists are working on formulating a new general theory based on this finding they are calling “evolutionary control.”

Various researchers working over the past decade, including some at Princeton like George McClendon, now at Duke University, and Stacey Springs, now at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, fleshed out the workings of [ATP], finding that they were often turned on to the “maximum” position, operating at full tilt, or at the lowest possible energy level.

Chakrabarti and Rabitz analyzed these observations of the proteins’ behavior from a mathematical standpoint, concluding that it would be statistically impossible for this self-correcting behavior to be random, and demonstrating that the observed result is precisely that predicted by the equations of control theory. By operating only at extremes, referred to in control theory as “bang-bang extremization,” the proteins were exhibiting behavior consistent with a system managing itself optimally under evolution.

Based on this story, it is challenging to determine just how this is differs from evolution in the usual sense. Looking at the original paper, it appears that what the authors are arguing is that 1) the constituent proteins in the electron transport chain are tuned to an extreme, 2) that this extreme is not related to the function of the proteins as would be “visible” to natural selection on the grounds of electron transport capability, 3) that the proteins in the network are optimized for redox potential, which has no consequences for the organism and therefore cannot have evolved through normal selection, and 4) that something else, i.e. self organization, is involved in producing the extreme features of the proteins. The rest is mathemagic, so someone else can wade through it and see if the argument makes sense if they like.

I am not actually concerned with whether the calculations are correct. As it so often is, the issue is about press releases and the hype and sloppy descriptions of both ideas and history that they (and, too often, the people interviewed) present.

________

Update:

PZ weighs in.

People have been having trouble finding the article. It’s here.

The authors have another paper in the bastion of bad biology, arXiv, that quotes directly from Wallace (here). Don’t blame the story author, these guys lifted that out of context by their own selves.